Geopolitical Headwinds: How Cur8 Capital is Positioned 

How Cur8 Capital is positioned through the 2026 Iran conflict and the global energy shock

THE ENVIRONMENT WE ARE OPERATING IN

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched in late February 2026, has produced the largest supply disruption in the recorded history of the global oil market. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products flow daily, became effectively impassable within days of the opening strikes. Brent crude surged toward $120 per barrel. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports. Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura terminal closed. The IEA described the situation as the greatest global energy security challenge in history.

The macroeconomic consequences are broad and compounding. Energy costs are feeding directly into inflation across Europe, Asia, and the United States at a moment when central banks had only recently begun to normalise policy. The UK faces additional headwinds through rising energy import costs, supply chain disruption, and persistent domestic inflation. Goldman Sachs estimated a $14 per barrel risk premium had entered oil markets as of the time of writing, with further upside if Hormuz disruption persists.

Against this backdrop, investors in Cur8 Capital’s funds are right to ask how this environment affects their positions. We believe the structural design of our portfolio positions us materially better than most of our peers to absorb this kind of stress.

However, our funds are not immune to the macro environment. No investment is, but they are built to absorb this kind of shock better than most: real assets, short tenors, Sharia-compliant structures that exclude interest-rate leverage, geographic diversification, and a management team with active relationships across every portfolio company. That resilience is not a theoretical claim. It is a design feature, and it is the feature this environment is testing in our favour.

WHO WE ARE AND HOW WE INVEST

Cur8 Capital is a Sharia-compliant alternative investment manager based in London. We invest across private credit and private equity in underserved markets, applying a disciplined, asset-backed approach governed by AAOIFI-compliant structures certified by Amanah Advisors under the guidance of Mufti Faraz Adam. Our principal deployment structures are Mudarabah and Wakala, which align the interests of manager and investor and, by Sharia prohibition, exclude interest-bearing leverage from the capital structure.

In environments of rising rates and tightening financial conditions, leveraged structures face compounding pressure: cost of debt rises, refinancing windows narrow, and equity cushions erode. Our portfolio does not carry that exposure. By Sharia prohibition, interest-bearing leverage is excluded from our fund structures entirely.

The assets we deploy into are real, operating businesses and secured facilities. This is not capital deployed into financial instruments or synthetic structures. It is direct exposure to economic activity, with real assets underpinning every position.

The USD Income Fund targets a 9.5% net annualised return, distributed semi-annually, with a minimum subscription of $5,000. The GBP Income Fund operates on comparable terms within an IFISA-eligible wrapper for UK investors.

HEADWINDS: WHAT WE ARE MONITORING

Energy cost transmission

Higher energy prices flow through into operational costs across our portfolio, most acutely in logistics, data infrastructure, and companies with significant physical footprint in Gulf-adjacent markets. We are in active dialogue with management teams on cost pass-through capacity, working capital buffers, and near-term capex plans. Critically, our short tenor structures mean we are not locked into pricing set before the shock, and our senior secured positions ensure that in a downside scenario we sit ahead of equity holders in any recovery.

MENA regional volatility

One of our data centre infrastructure assets operating in Qatar is in a jurisdiction directly affected by the conflict. Qatar’s force majeure declaration on LNG exports has introduced near-term uncertainty, and data centre facilities have emerged as high-value targets in the region, resulting in minor operational delays. Our counterparty’s contractual structure and sovereign client base provide additional protection that purely commercial exposure would not. We are monitoring the environment on an ongoing basis, and we are comfortable that the combination of sovereign backing, contractual protections, and the strategic importance of the asset to its clients makes this a manageable exposure rather than a structural risk.

Frontier currency risk

Our Central, South, and Southeast Asian private credit exposures involve frontier currencies that face pressure during global risk-off episodes. We manage this through short tenor structures, local Sharia-compliant currency hedges where available, and concentration in economies with strong domestic demand fundamentals that are not heavily exposed to Gulf energy import costs. Our view is that the economies in which we are deployed, including those with significant remittance inflows and commodity export revenues, are better insulated from this specific shock than the headline risk-off narrative suggests, and our portfolio construction reflects that conviction.

TAILWINDS: WHERE DISLOCATION CREATES OPPORTUNITY

Vehicle Finance in emerging markets

Our vehicle and mobility financing assets operate in markets that benefit structurally when fuel prices rise sharply. Higher fuel costs increase the relative attractiveness of fleet electrification and asset-light mobility models, accelerating the transition away from conventional fuel-dependent vehicles. As the conflict sustains elevated pump prices across our operating markets in West Africa and the Gulf, the economic case for switching to the vehicle types our financing products serve strengthens materially. We view this as a genuine demand tailwind across this segment of the portfolio.

Capital rotation into non-correlated private credit

Historical precedent is instructive. During the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, petrodollar wealth was recycled into non-correlated assets, with London property and private market instruments among the primary beneficiaries. Conditions in 2026 are consistent with the capital rotation patterns observed in those prior Gulf crises. Our USD Income Fund, offering dollar-denominated, semi-annually distributed income from a diversified private credit portfolio, is precisely the instrument that becomes more attractive relative to public fixed income when rates are uncertain, and equity markets are volatile.

Sharia-compliant structures as a differentiator

As the conflict elevates conversations across the Muslim world about the ethics of capital deployment, we are observing renewed interest in Sharia-compliant alternatives from investors who previously held conventional instruments without strong conviction. Cur8 Capital sits in a privileged position as a credible, operationally established manager with a deployed track record and an active pipeline of opportunities.

Private credit spreads

As public market risk appetite contracts and bank lending tightens, private credit spreads in our target markets are widening. New deployments are being made at more attractive entry economics than were available twelve months ago. Investors who remain committed through this period of volatility are effectively buying into improved terms.

Asset-backed deployment in a risk-off environment

In periods of elevated uncertainty, the quality of underlying security matters more than in benign conditions. Every position we deploy into is backed by real assets, whether property, receivables, or physical equipment, giving us a recovery profile that unsecured or synthetic credit instruments cannot replicate. As investors globally reassess counterparty risk and the durability of financial instrument structures, the asset-backed nature of our deployment becomes a clearer differentiator.

PORTFOLIO-LEVEL RISK MITIGANTS

Our private credit positions are principally secured, with recourse against real assets or receivables. In a downside scenario, our recovery profile is structurally superior to that of equity or unsecured credit holders in the same capital structures.

Tenor discipline is central to our risk management. Our preference for shorter-duration facilities means we are not locked into agreements priced at pre-conflict economics for extended periods. As conditions evolve, our ability to reprice and redeploy is a structural advantage over longer-duration private market vehicles.

Geographic diversification functions as intended in this environment. Our UK real estate private credit exposures, targeting 8 to 12% yields in distressed situations across Manchester and Birmingham, are largely insulated from Gulf energy dynamics. Goldman Sachs analysis found that less than 1% of imports to developed markets including the UK come from the Middle East, limiting non-energy supply chain exposure. Our African private credit positions in vehicle financing and SME lending across Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, and Egypt are tied to domestic consumption patterns not structurally exposed to Hormuz corridor risk.

Risk factor	Mitigant
Energy cost transmission	Active management engagement; short-tenor repricing optionality
MENA volatility	Sovereign client base; contractual protections
Frontier currency pressure	Short tenors; natural hedges; domestic demand focus
Public market contagion	Non-correlated private credit; no listed equity exposure
Refinancing risk	No interest-bearing leverage in fund structure

FORWARD OUTLOOK

We expect the current period of elevated volatility to persist for a minimum of several months, with the duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption the single most important variable determining the depth and length of the economic impact. A swift ceasefire and resumption of open transit would allow partial normalisation of energy markets, though infrastructure damage and elevated risk premiums are likely to sustain some price premium above pre-conflict levels regardless.

In this environment we are focused on three priorities: preserving the quality of existing portfolio positions through close monitoring and proactive engagement with management teams; deploying into new opportunities at the improved terms that market dislocation is generating; and communicating with investors in a transparent and timely manner so that those navigating this uncertainty have the information they need to make considered decisions.

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